Strange Defeats Wallace

Washington Lobbyist and erstwhile politico Luther Strange won the GOP primary for Alabama Lt. Governor defeating scion George Wallace, Jr. Wallace, by far the superior candidate was running on a platform of ethics reform and mainstream values. Strange, on a scorched earth conservative platform that also seeks to take advantage of the Alabama legislature’s pay-to-play-rules. Look for his tenure, should he defeat former Governor Folsom in the fall, to end in indictment because of the extensive conflicts of interest his law firm has with state business.

REED LOSES GOP NOD; TAYLOR WINS GEORGIA DEMOCRAT PRIMARY

In a stunning upset, Ralph Reed, the hypocritcal purveyor of religious right politics for profit, lost the GOP Primary for Lt. Governor to State Senator Casey Cagle. I am pleasantly surprised that his nacent Presidential ambitions were killed in the crib. I am very sure that we can all sleep much, much better at night knowing that this cynical opportunist will never be able to use presidential power to further his own ends. His 44% vote share shows that I was somewhat right that truth is optional to some GOP voters in Georgia. Casey Cagle is somewhat less ethically compromised. With this behind him, if elected, he will not follow down the pay-to-play-road. He wants to be Governor and the race to succeed Perdue now begins.

As predicted Lt. Governor Mark Taylor won the Democrat Primary for Governor even though I firmly believe that he will not win. He can give Perdue a run for his money but ultimately, will come up short ending his long political career and giving opponents like Cathy Cox a new lease on political life. It is now being speculated that she still has a future as politician, perhaps in the Senate. Who knows, maybe she will run again for Governor in four years.

KNOTTS BAILS OUT

SC GOP State Senator Jake Knotts didn’t bite the bullet and run as an independent and ruin Governor Sanford’s re-election bid which he certainly could have done. As I advised, he probably called and cut a deal with the good Senator, the details of which will probably be kept under wraps until the election is over. Sanford’s re-election chances are now enhanced measurably. With a considerable financial advantage, he still remains the favorite for re-election.

GEORGIA DEMOCRAT PRIMARY

The Georgia Democrat Primary features some fascinating races tomorrow. The first is the marquee race for Governor featuring two ambitious politicians: Lt. Governor Mark Taylor and Secretary of State Cathy Cox. This race has become nasty with charges and counter charges flying. Marketing himself as the “big guy for the little guy” Taylor took back the lead from the Secretary of State and by running as a populist man of the people concerned about Health Care and Education. He has hammered Cathy Cox on her conflicting and confusing positions on the popular HOPE scholarship lottery program. He snagged high profile African-American endorsements like Brooke Jackson Edmund, the daughter of the late Atlanta Mayor Maynard Jackson and the civil rights icon Ambassador Andrew Young who himself ran for Governor in the 90’s. Cathy Cox has aggessively fought back as a business friendly moderate who is not “a big guy” Her campaign also reaches out to African Americans but especially to all democratic women. The continued viability of the Georgia Democratic Party is at stake and if they don’t unify after this contest, the liklihood of ever holding the Governor’s mansion again diminishes significantly. Regardless of what happens tomorrow, and I am predicting a Taylor victory, I stand by my earlier assessment that Governor Perdue is in good shape for re-election.

Also on tomorrow’s ballot is one of Georgia’s most controversial political figures, Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney who faces a serious primary challenge for the third time. An anti-war liberal most moderate voters think is an unstable left-wing wack job, she won her seat back after the woman who beat her in 2002 unexpectedly ran for the Senate. Dekalb Commissioner Hank Johnson could have been a serious opponent if he had raised any money. The undercover support of Republicans could be pivotal but in the end probably won’t be enough to defeat her as before. Sometimes politics is as simple as who has money and who doesn’t and 150K ain’t made nobody a member of Congress lately. Hiram’s Prediction: McKinney is favored for re-election.

RALPH REED’S LONG MARCH TO POWER

As I write this, I would bet you a steak dinner that Ralph Reed’s long march to power will begin tomorrow when he wins the Georgia GOP primary. I’ve learned not to bet against Reed. His successful track record in dozens of races over the years is too many to name. In particular, his success in 2002 winning control of both houses of the legislature and the Governor’s mansion indicate a brilliance that should be respected. His double dealing with Jack Abramoff means nothing to most hardcare GOP partisans. His opponent in this race, Senator Cagle, has run the best race possible and has thrown up the necessary mud and raised the necessary cash. It won’t work in my humble estimation. Ralph’s grassroots work will pay dividends in a win. He is the biggest and most professional practitioner of religious right outreach. He can get the rubes to believe anything he says and do his bidding. It is a skill that I believe will one day make him Governor and subsequently, the next GOP President of the United States.

SC GOVERNOR’ S RACE: SANFORD CHALLENGED BY INDEPENDANT REPUBLICAN

In a further sign of discontent with Gov. Sanford’s libertarian leadership, GOP State Senator Jake Knotts took out papers last Thursday to gather signatures to challenge Governor Sanford as an Independant. He only has a brief window of opportunity and less than two weeks to gather 10,000 signatures. Should he be successful a crucial GOP stronghold in Senator Knotts’ district, which didn’t support the Governor in this years primary will be in play and so will the Governorship. Pending certification of signatures from Senator Knotts, the Governorship of South Carolina will defintely be in play. This is a race to watch for sure.

TEXAS GOVERNOR’S RACE GETS KINKY

According to the latest SurveyUSA poll, Monday, Rick Perry is down to 35% of voters supporting his re-election as Governor. The danger zone has officially been reached. Kinky Friedman, the left-wing country and western entertainer all the rage with Texas liberals is bringing up the rear with 21 % which creates a three way tie for second place with Democrat Chris Bell and Independent Republican Carole Keeton Strayhorn. The Governor’s continued weakness has caused me to re-assess this race . Hiram’s Prediction: Perry Re-election not favored.

MISSISSIPPI DEMOCRAT SENATE RUN-OFF

With 84% of the precincts reporting, Mississippi democrats have selected a sacraficial lamb to be slaughtered by Trent Lott in the fall election. The winner is Larouche democrat Erik Fleming, a black, pro-life State Senator. Any bets on how bad this idiot will lose by? HIRAM’S PREDICTION: 85% LOTT.

BAUER DEFEATS CAMPBELL IN SQUEAKER

With 94% of precincts reporting, Incumbent South Carolina Lt. Governor Andre Bauer fended off an aggressive challenge from the son of former South Carolina Governor Carroll Campbell with 51% 77, 396 votes to Campbell’s 49% 73, 883 votes. This ends the titanic contest for second fiddle and a launch to Mike Campbell’s political career. Millionaire developer Thomas Ravenel also snagged the GOP nomination for State Treasurer against the only remaining White Democrat elected statewide in South Carolina, octogenarian Grady Patterson. The 2010 contest for GOP nomination for Governor has just begun in earnest. I would venture to add that the key to the 2008 Presidential nomination lies embedded in the minds of the voters who decided this contest. Given the gateway nature of the South Carolina GOP Presidential primary, 2008 Presidential aspirants need to poll the voters in the run-off to understand why they voted as they did. They may find a silver bullet.

BAUER-CAMPBELL BRAWL IN SOUTH CAROLINA

The Andre Bauer-Mike Campbell smackdown in South Carolina comes to a conclusion tonight as the GOP runoff results trickle in. The Lieutenent Governor, Andre Bauer has been plagued by a series of erratic missteps as he has been routinely stopped for speeding, and crashing a private plane in the weeks up to the primary. These incidents, combined with a lackluster record and a history of wingnutterry worse than the Governor’s led to an impression in the minds of voters that Bauer was a lightweight. The son of former Governor Carroll Campbell, Mike Campbell has been able to capitalize on his late father’s sterling reputation as the godfather of the S.C. GOP to make substantial inroads in this race leading to an endorsement by former President Bush of his candidacy early on. His aggressive approach and willingness to reach out to various and sundry leading GOP lights lead to a stunning double digit victory in the primary over Bauer. Therein lies the rub. SC voters hate front runners and tend to choose the runner up. As of 8:37 eastern time the Lt. Governor is leading 45, 957 50.58% to Campbell’s 44, 915 49.42 %. Stay tuned.